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Tuesday, September 11, 2012

AP Gov Extra Credit #1

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In the last election, using a series of calculations and algorithms , Nate Silver was able to correctly predict 49 out of 50 Senate races, as well as almost exactly calling the electoral college vote for President Obama. Look through his site and the "fivethirtyeight forecast. What stands out to you about his analysis? What is expected to happen as far as the presidential race, Senate, and House races?

Due Friday September 21st. 


  1. What stands out to me the most is that recently President Obama has been heading for a fall in votes but still holds the probability of winning at 74.6%.
    As of now all races lead to President Obama being re-elected since it states that Mitt Romney fails to gain votes everyday an opportunity wasted.
    The fivethirtyeight forecast analyzes the pools of tipping states.

  2. What stands out to me the most is about his prediction for the popular vote it's actually really close at the end.In the long run though it is expected for Obama to win with both an electoral and popular vote majority.In the Senate it is expected for the democratic majority to win over the republicans.

  3. The Five Thirty Eight forecast, is an electoral forecast that Nate Silver of the New York times gives analysis on. What stands out to me on his analysis is how he analyses the data, and can predict if either Obama or Romany are ahead by points. In his analysis of today September 19 he posted that Obama is ahead by four points than Romney in state polls. All this research is for the November 6 forecast on who will win. It really was surprising to find that Obama's chances rose 99.4 percent on Wednesday, the highest he's ever reached. For the presidential race, Nate predicts that Obama's position will rise a bit with the convention, that's he's a 3-to-1 favorite, and a 76.4% chance that Obama will win the popular vote. The Democrats have a 52 seat in the Senate, and the Republicans have 48 seat since September 9. The Democrats have 79% majority of winning since September 9. The Republicans are doing bad in the Senate.

  4. According to Nate Silver, Obama is winning elections in various polls. What stands out to me the most about the fivethirtyeight forecast is that President Obama is mentioned more than Mitt Romney because of how many votes he has received. The Senate and House races will most likely have about the same people that were elected previously.

  5. What stands out to me in the fivethirtyeight forecast is the fact that president Obama has been ahead of the in the votes which include the Electoral College. As for the Presidential race Obama has nothing to worry about considering that he is winning with 76.9% percent of the votes. On the other hand the senate is drifting more towards the Democrats than the Republicans. Which might change the outcome of this presidential race. But anything is up for grabs and anything can happen during this presidental race, it can go either to President Obama which i strongy believe it will or to Mitt Romney.

  6. What stands out to me in The Fivethirtyeight forecast is the fact that President Obama is ahead of the race by 76.9 percent. President Obama has even have the ability of winning the Electoral College,considering the fact that the senate is difting towards the Democratic party than the Republican party. As for the votes Mitt Romney has been having a decline but President Obama has had increasing votes. Which put him on top of the Presidentil race,that in the end might go to president Obama instead of his presidential cadidate Mitt Romney.